PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Rei Sakamoto (-0.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+0.5)

Rei Sakamoto54%
Matteo Arnaldi46%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$16.8K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 29, 12:17 AMSep 29, 01:43 PMSep 30, 03:10 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Rei Sakamoto" if Rei Sakamoto wins 0.5 or more total games than Matteo Arnaldi in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Rei Sakamoto could no longer have finished 0.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket54% YesOpen
Set 1 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket54% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rei Sakamoto: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket59% Under 2.5Open
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket67% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket80% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket62% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket53% OverOpen
Set Handicap: Rei Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket66% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket55% Rei SakamotoOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket57% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket54% UnderOpen

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As of Sep 30, 03:14 AM UTC