PolymarketOpen

Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 23.5

Under55%
Over46%

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24h volume$26.6
7d volume$26.6
30d volume$26.6
Liquidity$15.1K
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 28, 10:36 PMSep 29, 10:21 AMSep 29, 10:06 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. Likewise, if the published format replaces the final set with a match tiebreak, that tiebreak counts as one (1) game, so for a line of 22.5, if play stops at 6-2, 3-3, the match could have reached at most 22 games and "Under" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket52% YesOpen
Set 1 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket53% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Game Spread: Rei Sakamoto (-0.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+0.5)Polymarket52% Rei SakamotoOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rei Sakamoto: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket59% Under 2.5Open
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket68% UnderOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket82% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket62% OverOpen
Arnaldi vs. Sakamoto: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket53% OverOpen
Set Handicap: Rei Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket67% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket54% Rei SakamotoOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPolymarket56% Rei SakamotoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 10:30 PM UTC