KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?

In 202651%

No49%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:24 PM UTC

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24h volume$327.3

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread11%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies TradingView BTC/USDT and XAU/USD percentage changes and an exact-equality 50-50 rule; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin data and ICE Data Service gold prices and does not state a tie rule. They also list different settlement times, which does not change the question.

PolymarketOpen →
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
364 holders · 8 comments · read Sep 25, 05:42 PM UTC
Kalshithis market
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.
read Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC

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As of Sep 29, 11:26 PM UTC