Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
364 holders · 8 comments · read Sep 25, 05:42 PM UTC
- KalshiOpen →
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.
read Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 days agoBest bid 53% · best ask 60%
Top holders
- notssf3108842731603268388872372442680604828937896736777451176037156713596409310394087
- imakebigbets108842731603268388872372442680604828937896736777451176037156713596409310394087
- PandL47113934605305582772590235372495078183833796521066344951188393486940857661087
- Single-Challenge108842731603268388872372442680604828937896736777451176037156713596409310394087
- Zptml47113934605305582772590235372495078183833796521066344951188393486940857661087
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY37%$2.25 days ago
- SELL37%$18.65 days ago
- SELL39%$25 days ago
- SELL40%$25 days ago
- BUY45%$4.35 days ago
- BUY43%$28.45 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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8 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- kukak0la · 26 days ago
Historically speaking, btc/xau 12M chart, there is only one red candle every 2 or 3 years. last year was red, so you know what come next. Good luck.
- GenaTheBondKilIer · last month
Nothing more gullible than a bitcoiner
- Mfoinso · 2 months ago
Taking Yes on Bitcoin outperforming Gold in 2026 at 20¢. $1 risk for ~$5 potential. Long-term relative performance bet.
- ScamwiseGamgee · 8 months ago
Not for long tho 🤣💀
- sorcerer.08 · 8 months ago
this is your 80th alt account and the first one to actually be in profit, nice job retard
- ffuuh43 · 8 months ago
no ofk
- Snow-White · 9 months ago
historically, you lose money
- Wuestenigel · 9 months ago
The year after the halving. Historically, gold outperforms Bitcoin.
As of Sep 30, 12:35 AM UTC