2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will François Ruffin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

No71%
François Ruffin29%

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Spread6%
ResolvesJun 30, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If François Ruffin is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. PredictFun and Polymarket use the Constitutional Council’s candidate list, with credible reporting as a fallback, and otherwise use actual ballot appearance; PredictFun has no fixed resolution timestamp, while Polymarket and Kalshi resolve around the June 30, 2027 cutoff. These are settlement-procedure and labeling differences, not differences in the underlying question.
  • Kalshithis market

    2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will François Ruffin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

    If François Ruffin is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 10:47 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    35 holders · 103 comments · read Sep 26, 08:22 PM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    read Sep 29, 11:45 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi54% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi67% Nicolas Dupont-AignanOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Olivier Faure appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi95% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Raphaël Glucksmann appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi59% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Nathalie Arthaud appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi77% Nathalie ArthaudOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Marine Tondelier appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi73% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Karim Bouamrane appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi97% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Marine Le Pen appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi92% Marine Le PenOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi87% Jean-Luc MélenchonOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Gérald Darmanin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi50% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Jordan Bardella appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi95% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Jérôme Guedj appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi96% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Fabien Roussel appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi79% Fabien RousselOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will François Hollande appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi60% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Gabriel Attal appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi69% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Dominique de Villepin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi63% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Éric Zemmour appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi83% Éric ZemmourOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will François Asselineau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi90% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Édouard Philippe appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi90% Édouard PhilippeOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Bernard Cazeneuve appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi90% NoOpen
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Will Clémentine Autain appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Kalshi92% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 11:46 PM UTC