KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Chris Van Hollen

No93%

Chris Van Hollen7%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread7%

ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Chris Van Hollen wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves on the first announcement of the next leader, with a later “Other” fallback if no leader is established; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projection. These are settlement-procedure differences for the same underlying event.

PolymarketOpen →
Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Kalshithis market
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Chris Van Hollen
If Chris Van Hollen wins the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Each party’s Senate conference elects its own leader, and the leader of the party that holds Senate majority status serves as Senate Majority Leader. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 09:56 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Tom Cotton	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Chuck Schumer	Kalshi	59% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? John Thune	Kalshi	66% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? John Barrasso	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open
120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?: Who will win the U.S. Senate Majority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Brian Schatz	Kalshi	91% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 11:02 PM UTC