PolymarketOpen

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Yes73%
No28%

Price checked at

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24h volume$1.3K
7d volume$12.8K
30d volume$459.9K
Liquidity$29.7K
Spread1%
ResolvesNov 30, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Polymarket98% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket83% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Polymarket67% YesOpen

Venue activity

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Comments312

Discussion on Predxy

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312 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • adasol · 3 days ago

    Explosions are being heard in the city of Sirik on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • latencyhawk · 4 days ago

    ceasefire pricing looks comfortable.. polybro disagrees and last time it did that it was right

  • totalenergies · 5 days ago

    Have to open up a beer for this one… speech is great

  • pink.impala · 5 days ago

    Gods chosen gloaters and murderers

  • pink.impala · 5 days ago

    If i was a ### i would be absolutely horrified that bibi is speaking in my name, thankfully im not a ### doe

  • pink.impala · 5 days ago

    Benjamin Netanyahu: ‘On October 7th, Khamas monsters slaughtered Holocaust survivors. They burnt babies alive in front of their parents, beheaded our men, and raped our women.’

  • hyper-liquid-xyz · 6 days ago

    Iran’s President Pezeshkian used his address to the UN General Assembly to reject restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear program and reiterate Tehran’s opposition to a US military presence in the Middle East. Netanyahu set to speak at the UN tomorrow.

  • pink.impala · 6 days ago

    All israel do is murder and lie and also gloat about it

  • hyper-liquid-xyz · 9 days ago

    Israelis will let the Iran-affiliated Houthis take Saudi Arabia?

  • adasol · 10 days ago

    Netanyahu says Israel will topple Iran's regime Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would topple Iran's establishment and still had work to complete against Tehran and its regional allies, according to remarks published on Thursday by his official account. “The desire by Iran and its proxies to destroy the State of Israel has not disappeared. It has simply weakened,” Netanyahu said. “We have done most of the work, but there is still work to complete, and we will complete it,” he said.

  • WhaleWatch-36276 · 12 days ago

    LulaVaiPerder spent $29,546.11 on September 30 outcome Yes. Profit so far: $2,438.02. That position is printing money right now.

  • WhaleWatch-20834 · 12 days ago

    LulaVaiPerder spent $29,546.11 on September 30 outcome Yes. Profit so far: $2,438.02. That position is printing money right now.

  • WhaleWatch-09793 · 12 days ago

    LulaVaiPerder spent $29,546.11 on September 30 outcome Yes. Profit so far: $2,438.02. That position is printing money right now.

  • yungsoleimani · 13 days ago

    Nopp

  • Unfinished-Nightgown · 13 days ago

    TA in Tehran!

  • 12beduins · 13 days ago

    The ###s has silenced him most likely he sometimes had valid critique bout israel THATS STRICTLY VERBOTEN

  • 12beduins · 13 days ago

    What happend to Abdoohl awesome comments? Wheres Abdoohl??

  • WaterFloww · 13 days ago

    great debt will be yours

  • yungsoleimani · 13 days ago

    Are you illiterate perhaps?

  • iNeedMoreDollars · 13 days ago

    arguing with yourself award goes to you

As of Sep 29, 08:33 PM UTC