PolymarketOpen

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?

Yes91%
No9%

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24h volume$45.9K
7d volume$88.3K
30d volume$88.3K
Liquidity$48.8K
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 28, 2026in 3 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket86% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Polymarket61% NoOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Polymarket57% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Polymarket52% NoOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Polymarket100% YesOpen

Venue activity

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Comments399

Discussion on Predxy

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399 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • noland1 · 20 hours ago

    been following this war since day 1, it never happens when you think it does.

  • classicoder · 22 hours ago

    who knows my friend, who knows

  • whichtopick · 23 hours ago

    every night is tonight

  • playbot · 23 hours ago

    tonight is the night!

  • glasscannon · yesterday

    fitting for a little bitch

  • totalenergies · 2 days ago

    Alert: Clavicular brings dog to court hearing in rape case. (TMZ)

  • yen4u · 2 days ago

    This should be disputed tbh. Nobody knows for sure who did the strike on Sirik. 3 day wait clause applies

  • mnov · 2 days ago

    LFG falsely resolve oct 21 to no

  • TronOG · 2 days ago

    which idiot disputed it ? lol

  • lowrisk2 · 2 days ago

    When resolved??

  • nsavo · 3 days ago

    Before the Israeli elections. Buy No for Oct 31.

  • adasol · 3 days ago

    Renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran ‘not unreasonable scenario’ - FT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the military to prepare a new major offensive against Iran earlier this month, including strikes on nuclear facilities, the report said, citing three people familiar with the plans

  • classicoder · 4 days ago

    no

  • pink.impala · 4 days ago

    "Russia is behind antisemitism in America. The Epstein files and disinformation campaign against Mossad is linked to Moscow" – IsrаеIi journalist David Reaboi

  • Quilty · 4 days ago

    yeah back in 70s when ppl where actually cool they had moustache and doing cocaine all the time!

  • Spirit-LT · 4 days ago

    Today

  • klayhamn · 5 days ago

    Went to an anti Pakistan protest lately, dipshit ?

  • klayhamn · 5 days ago

    Timeline: March 25 – December 16, 1971, ending with Pakistan's surrender and the creation of independent Bangladesh. Perpetrators: The Pakistan Army and pro-Pakistani local militias, including Razakars, Al-Badr, and Al-Shams. Death Toll: An estimated 3 million Bengalis killed. Sexual Violence: An estimated 200,000–400,000 Bengali women and girls raped, including in systematic army-run rape camps. Targeted Groups: Bengali nationalists, intellectuals, students, political figures, and the Hindu minority. Refugee Crisis: Approximately 10 million Bengalis fled to India. The conflict eventually prompted direct Indian military intervention. Documentation & Recognition: Journalist Anthony Mascarenhas exposed the atrocities internationally in his June 1971 Sunday Times article, "Genocide." Bangladesh observes March 25 as Genocide Day. Pakistan continues to deny the genocide, and formal international recognition remains limited.

  • klayhamn · 5 days ago

    You mean the Pakistanis who murdered 3,000,000 Bangladeshi in the 1970s ?

  • Quilty · 5 days ago

    The whole world look at these genocidal maniacs with disgust

As of Oct 24, 09:19 PM UTC