Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Polymarket | 86% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Polymarket | 61% No | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Polymarket | 57% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Polymarket | 52% No | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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399 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- noland1 · 20 hours ago
been following this war since day 1, it never happens when you think it does.
- classicoder · 22 hours ago
who knows my friend, who knows
- whichtopick · 23 hours ago
every night is tonight
- playbot · 23 hours ago
tonight is the night!
- glasscannon · yesterday
fitting for a little bitch
- totalenergies · 2 days ago
Alert: Clavicular brings dog to court hearing in rape case. (TMZ)
- yen4u · 2 days ago
This should be disputed tbh. Nobody knows for sure who did the strike on Sirik. 3 day wait clause applies
- mnov · 2 days ago
LFG falsely resolve oct 21 to no
- TronOG · 2 days ago
which idiot disputed it ? lol
- lowrisk2 · 2 days ago
When resolved??
- nsavo · 3 days ago
Before the Israeli elections. Buy No for Oct 31.
- adasol · 3 days ago
Renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran ‘not unreasonable scenario’ - FT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the military to prepare a new major offensive against Iran earlier this month, including strikes on nuclear facilities, the report said, citing three people familiar with the plans
- classicoder · 4 days ago
no
- pink.impala · 4 days ago
"Russia is behind antisemitism in America. The Epstein files and disinformation campaign against Mossad is linked to Moscow" – IsrаеIi journalist David Reaboi
- Quilty · 4 days ago
yeah back in 70s when ppl where actually cool they had moustache and doing cocaine all the time!
- Spirit-LT · 4 days ago
Today
- klayhamn · 5 days ago
Went to an anti Pakistan protest lately, dipshit ?
- klayhamn · 5 days ago
Timeline: March 25 – December 16, 1971, ending with Pakistan's surrender and the creation of independent Bangladesh. Perpetrators: The Pakistan Army and pro-Pakistani local militias, including Razakars, Al-Badr, and Al-Shams. Death Toll: An estimated 3 million Bengalis killed. Sexual Violence: An estimated 200,000–400,000 Bengali women and girls raped, including in systematic army-run rape camps. Targeted Groups: Bengali nationalists, intellectuals, students, political figures, and the Hindu minority. Refugee Crisis: Approximately 10 million Bengalis fled to India. The conflict eventually prompted direct Indian military intervention. Documentation & Recognition: Journalist Anthony Mascarenhas exposed the atrocities internationally in his June 1971 Sunday Times article, "Genocide." Bangladesh observes March 25 as Genocide Day. Pakistan continues to deny the genocide, and formal international recognition remains limited.
- klayhamn · 5 days ago
You mean the Pakistanis who murdered 3,000,000 Bangladeshi in the 1970s ?
- Quilty · 5 days ago
The whole world look at these genocidal maniacs with disgust
As of Oct 24, 09:19 PM UTC