PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:14 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$11.1K

Spread0%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket references consensus reporting and ultimately Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, with an “Other” fallback if unresolved by June 30, 2027; Kalshi may resolve early after designated media declare a winner. Their listed resolution timestamps also differ, but this does not change the event being measured.

Polymarketthis market
Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
31 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 10:28 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
Amazonas Governor winner?: Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
If Isael Munduruku wins the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 07:42 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Cabo Daciolo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Gilberto Vasconcelos win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	54% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	84% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	72% No	$50	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders31

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid — · best ask 0%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296685993810677322112153003170085286585223861249778271823438658366002356720448201
balthazar31743436485730807015678589046627403084966668002467947638149544964418025609166
macrosteaks31743436485730807015678589046627403084966668002467947638149544964418025609166
donthackme31743436485730807015678589046627403084966668002467947638149544964418025609166
Deafening-Possible31743436485730807015678589046627403084966668002467947638149544964418025609166

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Recent trades

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BUY100%$4017 days ago
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BUY100%$76.917 days ago
SELL0%$018 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 09:26 PM UTC