PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Yes57%

No44%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:54 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$20.5K

Spread6%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may resolve early based on designated media consensus, while Polymarket uses credible reporting or, if ambiguous, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, with an eventual June 30, 2027 fallback to "Other." The displayed resolution timestamps also differ, but this does not change the question.

KalshiOpen →
Amazonas Governor winner?: Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
If Omar Aziz wins the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 09:31 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
50 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 05:44 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Cabo Daciolo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Gilberto Vasconcelos win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	84% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	73% No	$50	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders50

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296654044506278782415584731219190295011128339493586097007448134386123016320312700
whispercatalyst54044506278782415584731219190295011128339493586097007448134386123016320312700
balthazar89855449589496432840888909550524792935269735793125252974744021498532768252661
p.p.p.p.p.p89855449589496432840888909550524792935269735793125252974744021498532768252661
WalterWhiteW89855449589496432840888909550524792935269735793125252974744021498532768252661

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY62%$55.83 days ago
BUY39%$0.83 days ago
BUY39%$7.43 days ago
BUY39%$9.43 days ago
BUY39%$23 days ago
BUY61%$30.53 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 11:11 PM UTC