PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:45 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.6K

Spread2%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may resolve early based on designated media consensus, while Polymarket specifies consensus of credible reporting with TSE results as the fallback and includes a June 30, 2027 uncertainty rule. Their listed settlement times also differ, but these are resolution-procedure differences rather than different events.

KalshiOpen →
Amazonas Governor winner?: Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
If David Almeida wins the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
34 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 06:59 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Cabo Daciolo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Gilberto Vasconcelos win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	56% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	84% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	71% No	$50	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders34

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 1% · best ask 2%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296674201024702020936789538675821263499599080219944067441643553061154138389329635
balthazar4023420693682340235038021700819398570091255987511986124106352033840120375701
Seeking-Alpha014023420693682340235038021700819398570091255987511986124106352033840120375701
LornaPredicts4023420693682340235038021700819398570091255987511986124106352033840120375701
sunnynotbunny4023420693682340235038021700819398570091255987511986124106352033840120375701

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY100%$3.26 days ago
BUY100%$22.96 days ago
SELL1%$0.17 days ago
BUY98%$58.98 days ago
BUY98%$58.88 days ago
BUY98%$39.28 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 12:18 AM UTC