Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
510 holders · 275 comments · read Sep 27, 01:38 PM UTC
- LimitlessOpen →
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...: December 31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c .
0 holders · read Sep 29, 03:20 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 81% · best ask 82%
Top holders
- RememberAmalek43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197
- RenanPresidente.33460385394344753109351907923235209397225125746318923726067817676780036931403
- 6576575733460385394344753109351907923235209397225125746318923726067817676780036931403
- BigRabbit43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197
- Atlantislq43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY19%$2.42 days ago
- SELL81%$9.92 days ago
- SELL18%$1.12 days ago
- SELL18%$2.22 days ago
- SELL18%$1.62 days ago
- BUY82%$102 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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275 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Tezcatlipoca · 4 days ago
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
- zthunderfury · 7 days ago
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
- Telepath-One · 7 days ago
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · 8 days ago
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
- 5038813185 · 10 days ago
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · 11 days ago
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
- Phenium · 11 days ago
3
- SIMOMEGA · 12 days ago
keep this pfp please
- beartrapper · 13 days ago
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
- higinvest · 13 days ago
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
- higinvest · 13 days ago
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
- higinvest · 14 days ago
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
- Eirnearzx51 · 14 days ago
boberne is win
- anonymous · 15 days ago
noone is stopping you lil bro
- tsybka · 15 days ago
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
- Ideal-Campanile · 16 days ago
Keep dreaming
- WhaleWatch-26463 · 17 days ago
anoin123 is up 2.15% on their $34,072.79 bet on December 31 with outcome No. Current value: $34,803.76. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.
- WhaleWatch-36491 · 17 days ago
RememberAmalek is currently one of the most profitable traders on December 31 with already $2,814.80 / +13.29% in total gains. Their position: $24,000.00 on outcome Yes. When the top earner doubles down, keep watching.
- Car · 17 days ago
bruh
- DontTrustMe · 17 days ago
Yes buyers be like:
As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC