Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Sourcehttps://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Polymarket | 83% No | Open |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
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281 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- hyper-liquid-xyz · 3 days ago
they ought to add a new market for nov 15
- yungsoleimani · 18 days ago
Imagine thinking they arent using BaM as leverage to keep foreign interference out… LOL
- yungsoleimani · 18 days ago
Yopp
- yungsoleimani · 19 days ago
If the market is mispriced according to you, buy more lol?
- SIMOMEGA · 24 days ago
the market isnt always right, but good luck trying to change 1M of votes on ur own
- TouchdownTerryDunk · 27 days ago
This should still equate to higher odds of closure because even if Houthis have decided for now not to close the strait, it's now completely within their power to do so and would be an obvious escalatory move if at any point they chose to escalate the ever-expanding war they're now in.
- Tezcatlipoca · 29 days ago
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
- zthunderfury · last month
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
- Telepath-One · last month
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · last month
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
- 5038813185 · last month
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · last month
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
- Phenium · last month
3
- SIMOMEGA · last month
keep this pfp please
- beartrapper · last month
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
- higinvest · last month
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
- higinvest · last month
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
- higinvest · last month
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
- Eirnearzx51 · last month
boberne is win
- anonymous · last month
noone is stopping you lil bro
As of Oct 24, 05:59 PM UTC