PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Josh Hawley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Oct 1, 12:25 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.7K

Spread6%

ResolvesNov 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves by whether Hawley accepts the nomination, while Polymarket specifies the first formally nominated person who accepts and uses official GOP-source consensus. Polymarket also states that a replacement before election day does not change resolution; these are resolution-rule differences, not different underlying questions.

KalshiOpen →
2028 Republican VP nominee: Will Josh Hawley be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
If Josh Hawley accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
read Sep 30, 08:30 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Josh Hawley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
25 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 29, 06:56 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Nikki Haley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Greg Abbott be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Brian Kemp be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Matt Gaetz be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Elon Musk be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Katie Britt be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Mike Pence be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tucker Carlson be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Steve Bannon be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tom Brady be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rand Paul be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Erika Kirk be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Thomas Massie be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Pete Hegseth be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Joe Kent be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders25

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966104674476598502631240377405486584286277762231965803192533127701902506884961698
cry.eth2113061269859529168885239387853430488296136506843374801173136445558791970724194
Haradwaith113061269859529168885239387853430488296136506843374801173136445558791970724194
GingerMcKenna113061269859529168885239387853430488296136506843374801173136445558791970724194
RadioCCOD113061269859529168885239387853430488296136506843374801173136445558791970724194

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Recent trades

BUY98%$121.920 days ago
SELL5%$128 days ago
SELL5%$128 days ago
SELL5%$0.5last month
SELL5%$1last month
SELL5%$1.4last month

Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

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LShibalba · 3 months ago
Read an article that JD said VP role is important and he wouldn't try to be the potus nominee without more experience. Very wise of him!

As of Oct 1, 01:03 AM UTC