PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

No95%

Yes6%

Price checked at Sep 30, 04:43 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$69.4K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves when Vance accepts the nomination, while Polymarket uses the first formally nominated person who accepts and specifies that later replacement does not alter resolution. They also have different listed settlement times and source criteria.

KalshiOpen →
2028 Republican VP nominee: Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
If J.D. Vance accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarketthis market
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
24 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 29, 06:32 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	71% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Glenn Youngkin be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Nikki Haley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Greg Abbott be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Brian Kemp be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Matt Gaetz be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Elon Musk be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Katie Britt be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Mike Pence be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tucker Carlson be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Steve Bannon be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Tom Brady be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rand Paul be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Erika Kirk be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Thomas Massie be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Eric Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	93% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Pete Hegseth be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Joe Kent be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders24

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Best bid 94% · best ask 95%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966114465052452047048676180456425350540593830230507116484185039240536974562077480
gloriafoster12119344478338184826982437017959520473968077765050496110869289093213993679755
oliman2114465052452047048676180456425350540593830230507116484185039240536974562077480
cry.eth212119344478338184826982437017959520473968077765050496110869289093213993679755
Haradwaith12119344478338184826982437017959520473968077765050496110869289093213993679755

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL5%$1.13 days ago
SELL94%$4.78 days ago
BUY6%$2.48 days ago
SELL5%$219 days ago
SELL5%$119 days ago
SELL6%$1.319 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

LShibalba · 3 months ago
Read an article that JD said VP role is important and he wouldn't try to be the potus nominee without more experience. Very wise of him!

As of Sep 30, 04:51 PM UTC