PolymarketOpen

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Yes68%
No32%

Price checked at

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24h volume$204.5
7d volume$676.2
30d volume$3.1K
Liquidity$1.7K
Spread8%
ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 22Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Polymarket69% YesOpen
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?Polymarket84% YesOpen
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Polymarket68% YesOpen
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Polymarket63% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders114
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments3

Best bid 34% · best ask 35%

Top holders

  • Jesetrading3999342593280647042452483910263163646233798933994487696066026869520797779617
  • jpurd173999342593280647042452483910263163646233798933994487696066026869520797779617
  • Gausslois24008301120639626284183659345425473336217777877996805928583982207989440857223
  • DEGENKHAN24008301120639626284183659345425473336217777877996805928583982207989440857223
  • Odd-Relish24008301120639626284183659345425473336217777877996805928583982207989440857223

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL64%$3.28 days ago
  • BUY35%$1.88 days ago
  • SELL64%$13.28 days ago
  • BUY35%$4.28 days ago
  • BUY35%$1.88 days ago
  • SELL34%$08 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • hurruburru · 7 days ago

    Nah won't happen

  • Lovely-Relative · 8 months ago

    El mercado está exigiendo a todas las empresas de IA que justifiquen sus enormes inversiones en infraestructura. De momento la monetización de soluciones de IA no se está produciendo tan rápido como el mercado esperaba, de ahí las ventas recientes en Big Tech. Si tenemos en cuenta que para alcanzar la cifra de 1.2 tendría que valorar a x60 veces sus ventas actuales y que aún no producen beneficio... Es dinero regalado!

  • Lovely-Relative · 8 months ago

    Mucho tiene que cambiar la narrativa sobre la IA para que OpenAi supere 1.2 billones.

As of Sep 29, 08:31 PM UTC