OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Polymarket | 84% Yes | Open |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Polymarket | 67% Yes | Open |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Polymarket | 68% Yes | Open |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Polymarket | 62% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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3 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- hurruburru · 8 days ago
Nah won't happen
- Lovely-Relative · 8 months ago
El mercado está exigiendo a todas las empresas de IA que justifiquen sus enormes inversiones en infraestructura. De momento la monetización de soluciones de IA no se está produciendo tan rápido como el mercado esperaba, de ahí las ventas recientes en Big Tech. Si tenemos en cuenta que para alcanzar la cifra de 1.2 tendría que valorar a x60 veces sus ventas actuales y que aún no producen beneficio... Es dinero regalado!
- Lovely-Relative · 8 months ago
Mucho tiene que cambiar la narrativa sobre la IA para que OpenAi supere 1.2 billones.
As of Sep 29, 10:23 PM UTC