NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 87% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 32% · best ask 33%
Top holders
- LlamaLoco0000105031123790227090351610621121319179238510007553875150023320472711583933704999
- aenews2105031123790227090351610621121319179238510007553875150023320472711583933704999
- thoodr76326875711147697076353707331532227929486722415800396469798548611383212234361
- onekey0276326875711147697076353707331532227929486722415800396469798548611383212234361
- tetrose105031123790227090351610621121319179238510007553875150023320472711583933704999
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY68%$3.48 days ago
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- SELL32%$18 days ago
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Discussion on Predxy
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239 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- CondeDeBelloch · 8 days ago
Because orcs cannot help themselves. It's not "if", it's when they will attack.
- Ban4ik · 8 days ago
какие 20% на октябрь уже вы обалдели что ли 😭😭😭
- godblessed07 · 8 days ago
It's never too late. Russia has introduced a curfew near the Estonian border, it is valid until September 26. It is forbidden to move by cars and people as well.
- jjjjok6666 · 10 days ago
3 WW incoming
- ShadowOG26 · 10 days ago
No military clash is gonna happen, you are loosing it all
- PIkk · 12 days ago
the rules need careful reading here
- jjjjok6666 · 12 days ago
impossible
- Donjon · 13 days ago
I'm hoping escalation remains avoidable
- octoppp · 13 days ago
Dude, a few weeks ago a Russian cruise missile crashed into a field in Poland. A few days ago, a Russian drone was spotted in Lithuania. A few weeks ago, a Russian drone tried to blow up a transport plane at an airport in Germany. lol
- octoppp · 13 days ago
The administration stubbornly ignores it; they only acknowledge the market if a missile lands—accompanied by a packet of documents confirming it came from Russia.
- finalyhere · 14 days ago
dont believe that
- Nicolasro91 · 14 days ago
Want to know it too
- jjjjok6666 · 14 days ago
why it raised so high today lol?
- aspepnips · 15 days ago
how likely is it to be 100% identifitied as operated by russia? if lithuanian authority claims "most likely russian" is that enough to qualify?
- ArthurGreen · 15 days ago
THIS IS POTENTIALLY BIG. "A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuania shortly after midnight on Tuesday, the Lithuanian national crisis management centre said. The drone, which likely entered from Belarus, was shot down near Pratkunai village in southern Lithuania, near Kaunas, the second-largest city, the centre’s spokesperson said. ITS ORIGIN IS YET TO BE DETERMINED, he said." (Source: Internazionale) So this is exactly the type of event where a later forensic identification could change things dramatically and in favor for a yes-resolution!
- Playful-Tabernacle · 15 days ago
LITHUANIA JUST SHOT DOWN A UAV FROM RUSSIA 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️‼️
- anonymous · 17 days ago
A Russian drone impacting on nato territory is not enough?
- cgtb · 20 days ago
living in Poland
- lottonakamoto · 21 days ago
On the afternoon of September 8, residents of the Romanian cities of Iași and Vaslui received an RO-Alert message warning of a possible drone crash or its fragments. The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations issued the warning to residents of the aforementioned cities at 4:36 PM local time, Ziare reports. "There is a risk of objects falling from the air. Remain calm! Take shelter in basements or civil defense shelters. If shelter is not available, stay inside your home, away from windows and external walls. Estimated duration: 90 minutes," the message stated.
- lottonakamoto · 21 days ago
Днем 8 сентября жители румынских городов Яссы и Васлуй получили сообщение RO-Alert с предупреждением о возможном падении дронов или их фрагментов. Генеральная инспекция по чрезвычайным ситуациям выпустила предупреждение для жителей упомянутых городов в 16:36 по местному времени, пишет Ziare. "Существует вероятность падения объектов из воздушного пространства. Сохраняйте спокойствие! Укройтесь в подвалах или убежищах гражданской защиты. В отсутствие укрытия оставайтесь внутри дома, подальше от окон и наружных стен. Предполагаемая продолжительность: 90 минут", — говорилось в сообщении.
As of Sep 29, 10:19 PM UTC