NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 83% No | Open |
Venue activity
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268 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Rex416 · 10 days ago
SaturnStormCube reveal yourself dm me
- filedescript0r · 10 days ago
Нет, пыпа не сможет воевать с НАТО
- 658658 · 10 days ago
A border alert doesn't establish a clash
- Kamala2024 · 11 days ago
A stray incident could create serious ambiguity
- CW1975 · 13 days ago
Bloomberg: poland-probes-possible-attack-planned-on-premier-defense-chief // tensions dont reduce ...
- nickthechopper · 16 days ago
It was not an attack on a NATO military. The target was a civilian grain carrier
- johnsic · 17 days ago
Armed men from Belarus crossed into Latvia A group of masked men attempted to force around 20 illegal migrants across the border. The men were armed and threatened Latvian troops. Latvia’s armed forces said the incident was particularly demonstrative and aggressive compared with many previous provocations. Several hours later, the men managed to enter EU territory, damaged an electrical distribution box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus, Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava said.
- guacamole.nz · 18 days ago
The market is about Russia accidentally hitting NATO ground. That's always a realistic, but minor risk.
- CondeDeBelloch · 18 days ago
russia just attacked two ships traveling from Romania (a NATO member) to Turkey (a NATO member) and, conversely, from Turkey (a NATO member) to Romania (a NATO member). They were attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria (a NATO member). Both ships are owned by Turkish (NATO member) companies. Time to pay.
- johnsic · 18 days ago
This is a major escalation by Russia. Russia is sinking merchant ships from NATO countries in the exclusive economic zones of NATO countries. Neither vessel had made a recent port of call in Ukraine. One ship was sailing to Turkey from Romania, and the other was sailing to Turkey from Egypt.
- Mr.Frog🐸 · 18 days ago
Drones attacked two commercial vessels near the coast of Bulgaria: one sank, and the other caught fire, — BGNEWS Bulgarian sailors are conducting a large-scale rescue operation in the Black Sea waters east of Cape Saint Athanasius and the town of Byala following the UAV attack. This is the first attack on vessels in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
- jvro · 18 days ago
Yes, but that’s what people think. IMO it’s not gonna happen anytime soon
- Raskell · 19 days ago
No it wouldn't unless it was a military ship
- johnsic · 19 days ago
A Turkish cargo ship carrying grain has just been hit 20 nautical miles off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea by a drone 13 of the crew are missing. If its Russian drone this might qualify.
- usernameusername22 · 21 days ago
- jvro · 22 days ago
Dude, good luck losing money 🤠
- guacamole.nz · 22 days ago
The way I see it, October market has about a 12% chance of happening
- jvro · 22 days ago
Remember, nothing ever happens. Market rules are tricky, but still has low change of YES.
- NotaJoe · 24 days ago
Ukraine is the only country putin wants to conquer, also putin
- octoppp · 28 days ago
yep its scam
As of Oct 24, 02:38 PM UTC