Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance

No76%
Yes24%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread—
ResolvesNov 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The Opinion market lists an earlier resolution time (2028-11-07) than Limitless and Polymarket (2028-11-08); this is a settlement-time difference and does not change the underlying question. The published resolution source and replacement rule are otherwise materially identical.
  • Limitlessthis market

    Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    14 holders · read Sep 29, 09:08 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    6.5K holders · 441 comments · read Sep 27, 10:49 AM UTC

  • OpinionOpen →

    Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — J.D. Vance

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    read Sep 29, 10:56 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr.Limitless98% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald TrumpLimitless98% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ron DeSantisLimitless97% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tucker CarlsonLimitless97% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ted CruzLimitless98% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Marco RubioLimitless85% NoOpen
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: OtherLimitless60% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders14
Held value$508.7
Trades (24h)—
Trades13
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 0% · best ask 47%

Top holders

  • 0xa5Ef39C3D3e10d0B270233af41CaC69796B12966No$480.9
  • 0x2eeF6a6baC8254454485D6F8917478eF7653c38BNo$17.8
  • 0x55223D44e1110EC0a53833846fA3229Cb9816337No$7.9
  • 0x6b95CFD79DfcdC5FcB4dfA21766E0d81b7f85F2eNo$1
  • 0xc8A8c7074f97Ea8284C6c2FcED363046133FE508Yes$0.6

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • —0%$05 days ago
  • —47%$1.515 days ago
  • —47%$0.426 days ago
  • —47%$32 months ago
  • —44%$9.72 months ago
  • —44%$4.42 months ago

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As of Sep 29, 11:02 PM UTC