Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
read Sep 29, 08:12 PM UTC
- Polymarketthis market
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
299 holders · 27 comments · read Sep 22, 06:54 AM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 71% Yes | Open |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 70% No | Open |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 0% · best ask 1%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129661931812278439411274621562204498438445306796659080252991795999379234493648897
- Gennedy106675477628507501040585426713979928715996831915977868937330396914038840931958
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly106675477628507501040585426713979928715996831915977868937330396914038840931958
- 0xa0f21e6d351baa9185716b5c00c2925ed9621848106675477628507501040585426713979928715996831915977868937330396914038840931958
- px1106675477628507501040585426713979928715996831915977868937330396914038840931958
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Discussion on Predxy
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25 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- semantics · 2 days ago
El Niño is coming…
- xiaodouzi · 6 days ago
Temperature of where? It’s not hot at all this year in China. So if China is taken into consideration, it probably ranks 6th or lower.
- igliberg · 3 months ago
i have heard that France is "burining"
- Famous-Fallacy · 3 months ago
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
- exmateriae · 3 months ago
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
- Short-Tunic · 3 months ago
6 or lower
- Short-Tunic · 3 months ago
6
- exmateriae · 4 months ago
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
- Academic-Forecast · 4 months ago
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
- studmuffin6969 · 4 months ago
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
- Climatologist · 5 months ago
Seems fairly priced
- Famous-Fallacy · 5 months ago
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
- Pasun4ik · 7 months ago
haaaa
- DYANA41800 · 7 months ago
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
- Gennedy · 8 months ago
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
- Eia · 9 months ago
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
- Zwicky · 9 months ago
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
- TESTENAOMEXA · 9 months ago
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
- Roro22 · 9 months ago
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
- Zwicky · 9 months ago
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
As of Sep 29, 10:25 PM UTC