PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:18 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$4.5K

Spread2%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The criteria are materially identical; Polymarket specifies early resolution upon a qualifying observation and a fallback if complete data is unavailable within 14 days, while PredictFun does not specify these timing details.

PredictFunOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 30, 12:59 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
104 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 27, 11:19 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	78% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	$4.3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$533	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	$342.3	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	$140	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	$60	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders104

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments3

Top holders

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commeowder106752699603266763784849736065272688687603139761745952185531728847192670959259
Newshound98460221163491257582561784482909447764170654893388981688283099290558156631581
singaporesling98460221163491257582561784482909447764170654893388981688283099290558156631581
Dr.PNL98460221163491257582561784482909447764170654893388981688283099290558156631581

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Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

GHOST4472 · 7 months ago
There will be a collapse because there is no stagnation in the Middle East
studmuffin6969 · 7 months ago
hello
Edmand · 8 months ago
Once the consumer finally taps out in Q3 2026, the Fed will have to panic-cut back toward 2.5%.

As of Sep 30, 04:06 AM UTC