Predict.funOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

No95%

Yes5%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:26 PM UTC

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The criteria are materially identical; Polymarket specifies early resolution upon a qualifying observation and a fallback if complete data is unavailable within 14 days, while PredictFun does not specify these timing details.

PredictFunthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 30, 08:03 AM UTC
PolymarketOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
104 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 27, 11:19 PM UTC

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As of Sep 30, 03:43 PM UTC