PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:28 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$3.7K

Spread2%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. Both use the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 10 Yr column. Polymarket specifies early settlement and a fallback if complete data is unavailable; PredictFun does not publish those additional procedures.

PredictFunOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 30, 12:59 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
29 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 29, 08:42 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	78% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	$4.3K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$533	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	$342.3	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	$140	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	$60	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 hours ago

Holders29

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments3

Top holders

HDGB38952357974068357896293012176440716894628591320948514343279282400674861252347
vivi402456991425040470014589708152891810902187001753015037609709825153921254989277828
Tiny-Audit56991425040470014589708152891810902187001753015037609709825153921254989277828
Dr.PNL56991425040470014589708152891810902187001753015037609709825153921254989277828
25oodksmsss0956991425040470014589708152891810902187001753015037609709825153921254989277828

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Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

GHOST4472 · 7 months ago
There will be a collapse because there is no stagnation in the Middle East
studmuffin6969 · 7 months ago
hello
Edmand · 8 months ago
Once the consumer finally taps out in Q3 2026, the Fed will have to panic-cut back toward 2.5%.

As of Sep 30, 03:13 AM UTC