PolymarketOpen

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?

No96%
Yes4%

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24h volume$539.3
7d volume$6.7K
30d volume$12.2K
Liquidity$34K
Spread1%
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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Comments3

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3 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • GHOST4472 · 7 months ago

    There will be a collapse because there is no stagnation in the Middle East

  • studmuffin6969 · 7 months ago

    hello

  • Edmand · 8 months ago

    Once the consumer finally taps out in Q3 2026, the Fed will have to panic-cut back toward 2.5%.

As of Sep 30, 02:08 AM UTC