Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?

No93%
Yes7%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$11.9K
Spread3%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves using official government information supplemented by credible reporting, while Kalshi specifies examples of qualifying and non-qualifying recognition. They have different settlement times, but the same substantive deadline and question.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?

    This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    48 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 03:50 AM UTC

  • KalshiOpen →

    Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Who will recognize Palestine? Finland

    If Finland recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to: - A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state - Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level - Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates) - Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations - An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty - A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister The following do **NOT** constitute recognition: - Trade relations or commercial agreements alone - Consular relations without diplomatic relations - Participation in the same international conference - Humanitarian assistance or aid - Cultural or educational exchanges - Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities) - Statements of "support" without formal recognition - De facto cooperation without formal recognition - Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred - Parliamentary resolutions without executive action **For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.

    read Sep 29, 07:19 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Will Israel recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket91% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders48
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 91% · best ask 95%

Top holders

  • AJSV91293556511988900538926806981948713907225537435439161744582315555436298554300
  • crossx63068743086274008725632051802876940026604169214603095549711376476841374680405
  • LarBotPrime63068743086274008725632051802876940026604169214603095549711376476841374680405
  • Inconsequential-Centre91293556511988900538926806981948713907225537435439161744582315555436298554300
  • Kusetus63068743086274008725632051802876940026604169214603095549711376476841374680405

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Recent trades

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  • BUY90%$3027 days ago
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  • SELL83%$96.127 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 09:29 PM UTC