Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

No92%
Yes8%

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24h volume$20.5
7d volume$20.5
30d volume$205.2
Liquidity$12.3K
Spread6%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi provides more detailed inclusions and exclusions, while Polymarket relies primarily on official government information with credible reporting as a fallback. Their displayed settlement times differ by time zone, but this does not change the stated December 31, 2026 deadline.
  • KalshiOpen →

    Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?: Who will recognize Palestine? Italy

    If Italy recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to: - A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state - Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level - Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates) - Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations - An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty - A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister The following do **NOT** constitute recognition: - Trade relations or commercial agreements alone - Consular relations without diplomatic relations - Participation in the same international conference - Humanitarian assistance or aid - Cultural or educational exchanges - Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities) - Statements of "support" without formal recognition - De facto cooperation without formal recognition - Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred - Parliamentary resolutions without executive action **For clarity:** recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.

    read Sep 29, 07:02 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

    This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    802 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 11:08 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Will Israel recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket92% NoOpen
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?Polymarket96% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders802
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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Comments0

Top holders

  • rocky4200916019571385933864398824687714763417628645678500362427226163740503698239790149
  • KrdRL71319561902463713856252610706550755390908611390553031712495892613096702224876
  • randomWalkingShrimp71319561902463713856252610706550755390908611390553031712495892613096702224876
  • 0x6b0ebbef2630b9a0da35594bf7ddd1911246e3ea16019571385933864398824687714763417628645678500362427226163740503698239790149
  • 0xfb12eae3220f8291d17097514ed71e73657991e716019571385933864398824687714763417628645678500362427226163740503698239790149

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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC