Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$4K
7d volume$25.4K
30d volume$194.4K
Liquidity$349.4K
Spread0%
ResolvesNov 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are identical; Polymarket lists a nominal settlement date of November 7, 2028, while PredictFun does not list a resolvesAt value, but both criteria allow resolution after that date and up to inauguration if necessary.
  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

    The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

    read Sep 29, 07:07 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

    The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

    405 holders · 1K comments · read Sep 22, 05:42 AM UTC

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Venue activity

Holders405
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments1K

Best bid 99% · best ask 99%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296618620821165547265880582330532076859546462061138941862890257010665389427790094
  • billybad1189071282556584199015490241074221756662667488270789034763702585258138302536112
  • Crushing-Ideal89071282556584199015490241074221756662667488270789034763702585258138302536112
  • AF202889071282556584199015490241074221756662667488270789034763702585258138302536112
  • 0x28bd5468cb80ca2b45bc33f338b70fa0f3eb36f089071282556584199015490241074221756662667488270789034763702585258138302536112

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY99%$68 days ago
  • BUY99%$78 days ago
  • BUY1%$2.88 days ago
  • BUY99%$98 days ago
  • BUY99%$59 days ago
  • BUY99%$99 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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1,023 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • UltraRik · 3 days ago

    please fix the color scheme @polymarket 🙏

  • Clever-Bear · 4 days ago

    vance keeps sliding and nobody can explain why, been watching polybro on this one and it picked up on the drift before the market did

  • 435642376909 · 6 days ago

    I'm waiting for the actual matchup

  • dPredictor · 7 days ago

    can someone explain why @hyperlong has 115k on both sides or AOC?

  • STANIS11 · 7 days ago

    ELON MUSK 100%

  • KlarcKent · 8 days ago

    A narrow polling lead leaves plenty of uncertainty in the presidential election

  • Markan-TopV1 · 9 days ago

    Guys I think I made best slogan for presidential election ever. Nobody's got this... you ready?... YOU'LL SEE ITS TULSI. I'm so good wow. 💪💪

  • David.Brown19 · 11 days ago

    prеdicue showed a whale entered before the volume became obvious. now that's analytics

  • bullcycle · 13 days ago

    the whole field and only one man's above 20, vance at 22 with aoc chasing at 13, the top spot on polybro hasn't changed hands all year

  • RaymondVan · 13 days ago

    Warnock 120x cheaper tho wiv same map

  • ISMS2222 · 13 days ago

    Every simulation I run of Ossoff vs. Vance has roughly 100 electoral votes shifting toward Ossoff’s side of the board. Ossoff isn’t just a 2028 play—he has the age and runway to be a serious 2032 contender as well. Newsom vs. Vance looks much closer to a coin flip. His California record gives Republicans an obvious affordability argument, and the establishment label could become increasingly difficult to escape. A major unanswered question is whether he can generate the Black turnout a Democratic nominee needs in states like Georgia and North Carolina. AOC has a different problem: expanding beyond her existing coalition. The more national exposure she gets, the more important that becomes. Ossoff’s potential advantage is the map. A Democrat who can seriously contest Georgia while remaining competitive across the traditional Democratic battlegrounds suddenly has multiple paths to 270. That’s what makes him interesting—not one poll, but the electoral geography.

  • vhnhtr78ytj · 15 days ago

    The electoral map matters more than vibes

  • CKAB · 19 days ago

    It's so obvious that he's winning in 2028 and 2032 and anyone who can't see that by now is a bozo.

  • CKAB · 19 days ago

    Ossoff. Easily.

  • CKAB · 19 days ago

    His path has become razor thin. The far right hates him more than anyone, and that's who got Trump into office.

  • cvr5676 · 20 days ago

    Vance has a plausible path, but nomination and election are separate hurdles.

  • Lilit · 21 days ago

    I'm waiting for clearer candidacies before declaring the race solved

  • Growland · 21 days ago

    Who has the clearest route to victory in the 2028 presidential election...😶‍🌫️

  • reallei · 22 days ago

    which is?

  • Markan-TopV1 · 23 days ago

    Since there's no Charlie Sheen imma have to go with Tulsi.

As of Sep 29, 08:30 PM UTC