Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

18%Yes

0 ptsover 24h

24h volume$20

Total volume$3.4K

Liquidity$314

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 8 months

First seenSep 2, 2026

Watching0

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Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	22¢	455	$455	+$355 4.5×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
83% No$20 24h volume
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Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

Probability history

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Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Science