Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?

36%Yes
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 5 outcomes

  1. 1500+93%1
  2. 1510+79%4
  3. 1520+55%1
  4. 1530+ · this question36%2
  5. 1540+16%3
24h volume$1.3K
Total volume$14.7K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 8 months
First seenSep 29, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 29Oct 6Oct 12Oct 18Oct 24Down 22 points on Sep 30Up 9 points on Oct 2Down 10 points on Oct 10Down 12 points on Oct 15
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket37¢270$270+$170 2.7×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
  1. 1Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: November 30, 2026
    71%Yes11 pts
  2. 2Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: December 31, 2026
    85%Yes1 pts
  3. 3Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026: Anthropic
    85%Yes1 pts
  4. 4Will Anthropic list by 1 January 2027 00:00 UTC with a first-day market cap above $2.5T?
    7%Yes0 pts
  5. 5Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: June 30, 2027
    92%Yes0 pts

As of Oct 24, 08:56 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.