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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2027?

20%Before May 1, 2027
2 ptsover 24h

The field · 17 outcomes

  1. Before Jan 1, 202960%1
  2. Before Jul 1, 202855%0
  3. Before Jan 1, 202849%0
  4. Before Nov 1, 202742%0
  5. Before Dec 1, 202740%1
  6. Before Oct 1, 202735%0
  7. Before Sep 1, 202734%2
  8. Before Aug 1, 202733%0
  9. Before Jul 1, 202730%3
  10. Before Jun 1, 202725%0
  11. Before May 1, 2027 · this question20%2
  12. Before Apr 1, 202716%2
24h volume$618
Total volume$3.9K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenOct 9, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9Oct 13Oct 16Oct 20Oct 24

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Kalshi21¢476$476+$376 4.8×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

As of Oct 24, 08:57 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.