Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

16%Yes
0 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues

The field · 2 outcomes

  1. December 31, 202760%1
  2. December 31, 2026 · this question16%0
24h volume$5.9K
Total volume$355.9K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months
First seenSep 9, 2026
Watching0

From Today's edition · Oct 18, 2026

A modern office building with OpenAI signage at the entrance.
Illustrative photo · Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

This question asks whether OpenAI will publicly announce another Millennium Prize solution before the market resolves on December 31, 2026. The newest verified public OpenAI math item I found is an October 15, 2026 update to its October 6 post on “sharing AI progress in mathematics,” where OpenAI said it was contributing $5 million to a Simons Foundation initiative and working with an advisory group on how to share and interpret AI-generated results. [1] Earlier, on September 8, 2026, OpenAI said an internal model had produced a solution to the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize problem and a Lean formalization, and on September 21 it announced an Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence while saying the model had resolved more than 100 long-standing open problems. OpenAI’s current newsroom/research listings still surface those October and September math posts, which suggests those remain the latest publicly verified milestones in this area rather than a second Millennium Prize announcement. [2]

Context by Predxy AI ·

  1. 1. Sharing AI progress in mathematics | OpenAI openai.com
  2. 2. On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem | OpenAI openai.com

AI-researched background, with linked sources. It does not explain or predict market movements.

Probability history

Open the market

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 9Sep 20Oct 2Oct 13Oct 24Sep 11, 2026 · Clay Mathematics Institute said the problem had apparently been settled but prize rules still applied.3Sep 21, 2026 · OpenAI said its model had resolved more than 100 long-standing open problems.4Sep 21, 2026 · OpenAI said a new internal model had resolved Navier-Stokes and more than 100 other open problems.5Oct 6, 2026 · OpenAI published a post on sharing AI progress in mathematics.6Oct 15, 2026 · OpenAI said it was working with an advisory group on how to share and interpret AI-generated results.7Up 73 points on Sep 10Down 29 points on Sep 11Up 21 points on Sep 17Down 11 points on Sep 23Down 11 points on Oct 7
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. OpenAI said the solution came with a Lean formalization. On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem | OpenAI
  2. OpenAI announced an AI-generated Navier-Stokes solution with a writeup and Lean formalization. On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem | OpenAI
  3. Clay Mathematics Institute said the problem had apparently been settled but prize rules still applied. On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem | OpenAI
  4. OpenAI said its model had resolved more than 100 long-standing open problems. On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem | OpenAI
  5. OpenAI said a new internal model had resolved Navier-Stokes and more than 100 other open problems. Sharing AI progress in mathematics | OpenAI
  6. OpenAI published a post on sharing AI progress in mathematics. Sharing AI progress in mathematics | OpenAI
  7. OpenAI said it was working with an advisory group on how to share and interpret AI-generated results. Sharing AI progress in mathematics | OpenAI

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Predict.funBest payout15.5¢*645$645+$545 6.5×
Polymarket17¢588$588+$488 5.9×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
  1. 1Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: November 30, 2026
    60%Yes24 pts
  2. 2Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: December 31, 2026
    85%Yes1 pts
  3. 3Which Companies Will Confirm an IPO in 2026: Anthropic
    81%Yes4 pts
  4. 4Anthropic IPO Officially Confirmed By: June 30, 2027
    92%Yes0 pts
  5. 5Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
    28%Yes0 pts

As of Oct 24, 01:05 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.