Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026?

36%Yes

5 ptsover 24h

The field · 6 outcomes

24h volume$20

Total volume$3K

Liquidity$389

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 2, 2027in 2 months

First seenOct 30, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	51¢	196	$196	+$96.08 2×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026?
65% No$20 24h volume
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Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Science

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Science