The Citadel vs Mercer: The Citadel wins

1%The Citadel

12 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 2 of 3 venues

24h volume$134.4KFrom 2 of 3 venues

Total volume$136.4KFrom 2 of 3 venues

Liquidity—

Open interest$57.5KFrom 1 of 3 venues

Markets33 venues, 2 priced

ResolvesOct 31, 202615 hours ago

First seenOct 18, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	1¢*	10,000	$10,000	+$9,900 100×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

3 venues

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

stale
The Citadel vs Mercer: The Citadel wins
99% No$120.2K 24h volume
Resolution rules
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
stale
The Citadel vs Mercer: The Citadel wins
100% Mercer$14.3K 24h volume
Resolution rules
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
The Citadel vs. Mercer
100% MERCno volume published
Resolution rules
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

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The Citadel vs Mercer: The Citadel wins

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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