Plague case in US by December 31?

5%Yes

1 ptsover 24h

24h volume$425

Total volume$17K

Liquidity$3.8K

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenOct 6, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	5¢	2,000	$2,000	+$1,900 20×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Plague case in US by December 31?
96% No$425 24h volume
Resolution rules
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Plague case in US by December 31?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Science