OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

49%OpenAI

2 ptsover 24h

24h volume$20

Total volume$2.3K

Liquidity$106

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

First seenSep 18, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	61¢	164	$164	+$63.93 1.6×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
51% Anthropic$20 24h volume
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OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in AI