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EconomyMexicoMexico

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

26%Yes
7 ptsover 24h

The field · 5 outcomes

  1. No change73%7
  2. 25 bps decrease · this question26%7
  3. 25 bps increase<1%0
  4. 50+ bps increase<1%0
  5. 50+ bps decrease<1%0
24h volume$1.9K
Total volume$23.4K
Markets11 venue, 1 priced
ResolvesNov 5, 2026in 12 days
First seenSep 2, 2026
Watching0

From Today's edition · Oct 22, 2026

The Bank of Mexico building in Mexico City, typically shown as a formal government or central bank facade.
Illustrative photo · Alfonso21, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The question asks whether Banco de México will cut its target overnight interbank funding rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting; it resolves when Banxico publishes that meeting’s monetary-policy decision. Banxico says these decisions are released according to its calendar, and the target rate is the policy reference rate. [1] The latest verified development is Banxico’s Oct. 8 minutes for the Sept. 24 meeting, when the board kept the target unchanged at 6.50%. Before that, Banxico cut 25 bps on May 7 and again on Mar. 26, then held steady on Jun. 25, Aug. 6 and Sept. 24, leaving the November decision as the next scheduled checkpoint for this market question. [2]

Context by Predxy AI ·

  1. 1. Anuncios de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México banxico.org.mx
  2. 2. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México banxico.org.mx

AI-researched background, with linked sources. It does not explain or predict market movements.

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 15Sep 28Oct 11Oct 24Sep 24, 2026 · Banxico held its target overnight interbank funding rate steady at 6.50%.7Sep 24, 2026 · Reuters said headline inflation was not expected to return to target until Q4 2027.8Oct 8, 2026 · Banxico published minutes for the Sept. 24 meeting, when the board left rates unchanged at 6.50%.9Down 37 points on Oct 8Up 12 points on Oct 9Up 12 points on Oct 14Down 16 points on Oct 20Up 14 points on Oct 23
▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

What happened

  1. Banxico cut its target rate by 25 basis points in March. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  2. Banxico cut rates by 25 basis points on March 26 earlier in the year. Banco de México
  3. Banxico cut its target rate by 25 basis points in May. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  4. Banxico cut rates by 25 basis points on May 7 earlier in the year. Banco de México
  5. Banxico held rates steady at its June meeting. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  6. Banxico kept its policy rate unchanged at its August meeting. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  7. Banxico held its target overnight interbank funding rate steady at 6.50%. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  8. Reuters said headline inflation was not expected to return to target until Q4 2027. Anuncios de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México
  9. Banxico published minutes for the Sept. 24 meeting, when the board left rates unchanged at 6.50%. Minutas de política monetaria, tasa objetivo, Banco de México

Coming up

  1. Banxico's next policy decision is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Banco de México

Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.

If you’re right

$
Side
VenuePriceSharesPaysProfit
Polymarket25.6¢391$391+$291 3.9×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

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As of Oct 24, 03:01 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.