Supreme Court overturns federal ban on home distilleries?

A holding that Congress lacks the constitutional authority to enact the prohibition will qualify regardless of the constitutional ground relied upon or the scope of the relief or remedy ordered. Where the Court affirms in part and reverses in part, issues a plurality opinion, or resolves the case on alternative grounds, this market will resolve to "Yes" only if the prohibition on distillation in a dwelling house itself is invalidated on its face. A decision that invalidates the prohibition only as applied to particular parties or circumstances, without such a holding, will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the Court issues a merits ruling in Department of Justice v. McNutt that leaves the prohibition facially valid, or if Department of Justice v. McNutt and any consolidated case are terminated without a ruling that satisfies the conditions above, including by a dismissal as improvidently granted, a denial of certiorari, a summary disposition or emergency docket order that does not reach the question presented, a non-merits vacatur or remand, a settlement, a voluntary dismissal, or any other termination without a merits ruling.

If no qualifying ruling has been issued by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, including because the case remains undecided, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the Court's opinion or judgment as announced; a subsequent petition for rehearing will not delay or alter resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States.