Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has taken at least 5 presidential actions from Nov 8, 2026 through Nov 14, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 15, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
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How this is resolved
The market solely resolves to the publication dates visibly displayed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 15, 2026. The week runs from Nov 8, 2026 through Nov 14, 2026.
Payout criteria
The actions may include proclamations, executive orders, nominations & appointments, and memoranda. Any item listed on the page counts, regardless of its legal effect.
Examples (for Jan 10, 2026):
Executive Order with a Jan 7 signing date is released with a Jan 10 publication date → resolves Yes Proclamation e-mailed to White House Press Pool but not uploaded by 10:00 AM next day → resolves No Proclamation is released Jan 10 with a backdated Jan 9 publication date → resolves No Bill signed into law and shows up on "Briefings & Statements" instead of "Presidential Actions" → resolves No
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As of Nov 10, 09:30 PM UTC