Will Christine Lagarde advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
No92%
Yes8%
Price checked at
24h volume$3.3K
7d volume$8.1K
30d volume$8.1K
Liquidity$22.4K
Spread2%
ResolvesApr 19, 2027in 5 months
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
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The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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8 comments
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manlets · 4 days ago
Win is too high, due to being pushed up by his team
PappyB · 11 days ago
Lagarde should be added, cf. Le Figaro today: "Présidentielle 2027 : Bruno Le Maire «enthousiaste» à l'idée d'une éventuelle candidature de Christine Lagarde"
"Christine Lagarde a déclaré jeudi quitter prématurément la tête de la BCE pour «avoir la liberté de parole, la liberté d’expression et la liberté de (s)’engager sur des sujets qui ne relèvent pas de la politique monétaire», à quelques mois de l’élection présidentielle en France."
Kakeki · 12 days ago
Peut on ajouter Lagarde
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AlphaBet · 29 days ago
Lisnard: the two markets don't add up.
Win 14.0¢ vs Advance-to-R2 ~15.0¢
→ implied P(win | makes runoff) = 14.0 / 15.0 ≈ 93%
Same calc for the others:
Le Pen ≈ 44% · Philippe ≈ 45% · Mélenchon ≈ 38%
93% means he'd beat almost anyone in a runoff, Le Pen included.
Either "win" is too high or "advance" is too low.
Poivre · 5 months ago
ça arrive très tôt dis donc
SwitchMario2019 · 5 months ago
🤣
DontTrustMe · 5 months ago
The guy behind this list of candidates must have a serious crush on Clémence Guetté. 🤨