Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and 49ers, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael Mayer scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket settles on the official NFL game book and resolves No if Mayer is inactive or does not play; Kalshi uses its own snap-based rule and, if active but never takes a snap, settles to the fair market price before game start. These are different resolution procedures for the same underlying question.
this market
Michael Mayer: 2+ Touchdowns
In the upcoming NFL football game between Raiders and 49ers, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael Mayer scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
If Michael Mayer scores at least 2+ touchdowns in the Las Vegas vs San Francisco Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to Michael Mayer in the Las Vegas vs San Francisco Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026. If Michael Mayer is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Michael Mayer takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count as a special teams touchdown.
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