Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Packers and Patriots, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if MarShawn Lloyd scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi settles to fair market price if Lloyd is active but never takes a snap; Polymarket resolves No if he is inactive or does not play. Polymarket specifies official NFL game book and excludes defensive/special teams TDs; Kalshi’s published criteria differ in no material way for the core 2+ TD question.
If MarShawn Lloyd scores at least 2+ touchdowns in the Green Bay vs New England Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to MarShawn Lloyd in the Green Bay vs New England Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026. If MarShawn Lloyd is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once MarShawn Lloyd takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count as a special teams touchdown.
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this market
MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns
In the upcoming NFL football game between Packers and Patriots, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if MarShawn Lloyd scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
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