Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cardinals and Seahawks, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Allgeier scores the first rushing or receiving touchdown in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. If the first touchdown is a passing touchdown, only the player credited with the receiving touchdown counts as the first touchdown scorer. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the "Other" outcome resolves "Yes".
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves by its own player-market rules, including a fair-market-price fallback if Allgeier is active but never takes a snap and a specific rule if no touchdowns are scored. Polymarket uses the official NFL game book/NFL.com and says inactive or non-playing resolves No; these are material settlement differences only, not a different question.
Arizona vs Seattle: 1st Touchdown: Tyler Allgeier: 1st Touchdown
If Tyler Allgeier scores the first touchdown in Arizona vs Seattle Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to Tyler Allgeier in the Arizona vs Seattle professional football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026. If Tyler Allgeier is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Tyler Allgeier takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on touchdowns scored. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes and all other player markets resolve to No. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or field goals by the offensive team do not count as a special teams touchdown.
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this market
Will Tyler Allgeier score the first touchdown?
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cardinals and Seahawks, scheduled for November 8 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Allgeier scores the first rushing or receiving touchdown in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. If the first touchdown is a passing touchdown, only the player credited with the receiving touchdown counts as the first touchdown scorer. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the "Other" outcome resolves "Yes".
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