Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Colts, scheduled for November 8 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if CeeDee Lamb records more than 59.5 receiving yards in this game, and to "Under" if CeeDee Lamb records 59.5 or fewer receiving yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi is scalar with payout tiers by yardage, while Polymarket is a binary Over/Under 59.5 market. They reference the same game and stat; differences in settlement source/time and delayed-game handling do not materially change the question.
If Each Yes contract pays per receiving yards by CeeDee Lamb in the Dallas vs Indianapolis Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 8, 2026. Each 10 receiving yards increase the payout by the following schedule: 0–9 yards, $0.0000; 10–19, $0.0001; 20–29, $0.0010; 30–39, $0.0033; 40–49, $0.0080; 50–59, $0.0156; 60–69, $0.0270; 70–79, $0.0428; 80–89, $0.0640; 90–99, $0.0911; 100–109, $0.1250; 110–119, $0.1663; 120–129, $0.2160; 130–139, $0.2746; 140–149, $0.3430; 150–159, $0.4218; 160–169, $0.5120; 170–179, $0.6141; 180–189, $0.7290; 190–199, $0.8573; and 200 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a scalar market. The Yes payout per contract shown above follows this calculation:
Payout Formula = floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000
y = min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10)))
s = official receiving yards
The No payout is $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Negative receiving yard totals pay Yes $0.00.
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read Nov 9, 05:49 PM UTC
this market
CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5
In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Colts, scheduled for November 8 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if CeeDee Lamb records more than 59.5 receiving yards in this game, and to "Under" if CeeDee Lamb records 59.5 or fewer receiving yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
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