KalshiOpen

Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Fernando Alonso

No99%
Fernando Alonso1%

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24h volume$816
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread5%
ResolvesNov 2, 202620 hours ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31, 09:00 PMNov 1, 01:09 PMNov 2, 05:19 AMNov 2, 09:28 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Fernando Alonso has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at the 2026 Mexico Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. Position Differential: Differential = official starting grid position − official final classified position. Starting Grid: Uses the official FIA starting grid, including any grid penalties applied before the start. If a driver starts from the pit lane, their starting position is one lower than the last regularly gridded driver, unless the FIA publishes a specific numeric grid position for them. If the race is red-flagged and restarted, the original starting grid is used. Final Position: Uses the official FIA classification, including post-race time penalties and disqualifications published before expiration. Later changes or appeals are not counted. If a driver retires but FIA still assigns them a classified finishing position, that position is used. Eligibility: Only drivers with both an official starting grid position and an official numeric classified finishing position are eligible to resolve Yes and are included in the comparison. A driver who does not participate, does not start (DNS), or has no numeric classified position (e.g., an unclassified DNF or a DSQ) resolves No and is excluded from the comparison. Ties / Dead Heats: If multiple drivers tie for the greatest signed differential, Yes pays $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent) and No pays $1 minus the Yes payout, where N is the number of tied drivers. Official FIA ties in grid or finishing position keep the tied number for each driver, and the next position skips ahead (e.g., a tie at P2 gives 1, 2, 2, 4). Stopped, Postponed, or Cancelled Races: If the race is red-flagged and not resumed within 48 hours, the classification at the time of stoppage is used, provided the leader completed at least 2 racing laps (laps not entirely under Safety Car or VSC). Otherwise, all markets settle to a fair price. If the race is rescheduled within 48 hours of its original start at the same circuit, the market remains open and resolves based on the rescheduled race. If the race is moved to a different circuit, rescheduled more than 48 hours later, or cancelled, all markets settle to a fair price. If no official grid or classification is available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Liam LawsonKalshi92% Liam LawsonOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Oscar PiastriKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Isack HadjarKalshi99% NoOpen
Biggest Mover: Sergio PerezKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Andrea Kimi AntonelliKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Oliver BearmanKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Max VerstappenKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Gabriel BortoletoKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Ryo HirakawaKalshi90% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Lewis HamiltonKalshi99% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Pierre GaslyKalshi98% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Franco ColapintoKalshi97% NoOpen
Biggest Mover: Carlos Sainz Jr.Kalshi92% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Arvid LindbladKalshi95% NoOpen
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Lando NorrisKalshi—Open
Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover: Biggest Mover: Nico HulkenbergKalshi—Open
Biggest Mover: Valtteri BottasKalshi90% NoOpen

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As of Nov 2, 09:45 PM UTC