When will the Knesset approve a new government?: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?

If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted. For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market resolves to NO, including where that triggers a fresh election.