Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Novig UFC money market on Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland, scheduled 2026-11-15 02:20 UTC. Sides: Uros Medic / Kevin Holland. A void settles every outcome at its fair market value, not a refund. The exchange's rulebook governs settlement.
Comparable, not identical. The venues differ only on settlement mechanics: Gemini and Kalshi specify special handling for postponement/cancellation and use outside sources/fair-price rules, SxBet voids on no contest, and Novig says voids settle at fair market value. These are not material differences in the underlying question.
this market
Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland: Uros Medic wins
Novig UFC money market on Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland, scheduled 2026-11-15 02:20 UTC. Sides: Uros Medic / Kevin Holland. A void settles every outcome at its fair market value, not a refund. The exchange's rulebook governs settlement.
If Uros Medic wins the Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the fight ends in a draw/no contest, both markets will resolve to $0.50. Note that any revisions after Expiration will not be considered. Therefore, if a fighter is disqualified, removed, or the official result of the fight is reversed or changed in any way after the Contract expires, that will not impact resolution. If the fight is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the fight is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, both markets will resolve to a fair price.
This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
This market resolves to Yes if Uros Medic wins the Medic vs Holland professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 9:20 PM ET. Important information: If the fight ends in a draw/tie or no contest, this market will resolve No. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within 7 days). If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over 7 days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Fox Sports, and ESPN. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)
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