KalshiOpen

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.04% or above

No97%

5.04% or above3%

Price checked at Nov 1, 12:17 PM UTC

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24h volume$2

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$370

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 2, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 2, 2026, or one week following Nov 2, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.12% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$19.5K	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.94% or above	Kalshi	70% 4.94% or above	$641	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.92% or above	Kalshi	79% 4.92% or above	$346	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.96% or above	Kalshi	65% No	$227	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.98% or above	Kalshi	78% No	$119	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.02% or above	Kalshi	91% No	$116	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.9% or above	Kalshi	80% 4.9% or above	$61	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.86% or above	Kalshi	96% 4.86% or above	$32	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Nov 2, 2026? 5% or above	Kalshi	89% No	$8	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.1% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$1	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Nov 2, 2026? 4.88% or above	Kalshi	85% 4.88% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.08% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Nov 2, 2026? 5.06% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Nov 1, 12:19 PM UTC