PolymarketOpen

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$3.1K
7d volume$3.8K
30d volume$3.8K
Liquidity$20.1K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30, 03:27 PMOct 31, 05:28 AMOct 31, 07:29 PMNov 1, 09:30 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

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Comments2

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2 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • .mrovaro · 3 months ago

    you know where is drop?

  • CarGena · 3 months ago

    We need the same markets for: Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe. Cope and seethe americans because YOU LOSE, YOU KEEP LOSING YOU ARE LOSERS

As of Nov 1, 10:20 AM UTC