Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Memphis wins the Memphis vs South Florida college football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Read the full rules
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, the market will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Comparable, not identical. The venues use different settlement mechanics: Kalshi has a fair-price fallback if the game is canceled or not started within 48 hours, Polymarket has a 50-50/no-result rule, and Gemini may use its market review process. These are procedural differences only; they do not change the event/outcome being priced.
this market
Memphis wins
If Memphis wins the Memphis vs South Florida college football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, the market will resolve to a fair price.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
In the upcoming college football game between Memphis and South Florida, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):
This market will resolve to "Memphis" if Memphis win the game.
This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game.
Overtime is included if played.
If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market resolves to Yes if Memphis wins the College Football game between Memphis and South Florida originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event . If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/NCAA_FBS_Win-Loss_23ef351f-7ee0-4503-a740-5da5c95d4b2c.pdf).
read Nov 10, 05:11 AM UTC
Venue activity
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